The Revival of Union Square

A Neighborhood Rebuilding From the Ground Up

Union Square has lived through a difficult cycle. The pandemic emptied offices, tourism slowed, and national brands closed stores that once defined the district. For two years the narrative focused on decline, vacancies, and the question of whether San Francisco could sustain a traditional retail core.

Now, the story is shifting. The headlines have not fully caught up to the on-the-ground momentum, but the revival is real. Private capital is buying buildings. Retailers are signing new leases at sustainable rents. Hotels are refurbishing rooms. Tourism is rising again. Union Square is entering a new phase, and the next five years may look very different from the past five.

The First Sign of Recovery: New Ownership and Real Capital

A New Wave of Buyers Is Resetting the District

The biggest shift in Union Square is the arrival of new ownership groups that see opportunity where the market saw risk. When landmark buildings trade hands at realistic valuations, everything else begins to realign. New owners are investing in upgrades, resetting lease rates, and bringing back the type of stable tenants that anchor a retail district.

Why This Matters for the Next Cycle

New buyers are not operating on the old rents that collapsed under pandemic dynamics. They are underwriting stores based on modern foot traffic and realistic sales expectations. This resets the entire ecosystem.
Retailers find it easier to sign long term leases, and developers feel more confident about holding assets.

The Retail Mix Is Changing In the Right Direction

Luxury Is Returning, but So Is Mid Market Retail

Tourism is climbing, and luxury retailers are edging back, but the more important development is the return of mid market brands that serve daily and weekly shoppers. Union Square cannot survive only on luxury. It needs a balanced mix of premium, lifestyle, and accessible brands that keep foot traffic steady throughout the week.

Experience Driven Retail Is Filling Vacancies

Many of the new tenants are experiential concepts, fitness studios, entertainment venues, and food hall operators. These categories create reasons to visit Union Square beyond shopping. They draw locals rather than relying solely on tourists. Cities with strong retail districts have learned that experiences fill the gaps between traditional stores, and Union Square is following that model.

Ground Floor Activation Is Improving Street Safety

More open storefronts create more eyes on the street. More foot traffic creates safer blocks, and the combination lifts the entire district. This feedback loop is one of the strongest signals that a retail corridor is stabilizing.

Development Momentum Is Finally Visible

Hotels, Office Conversions, and Renovations Are Returning

Hotels around Union Square are investing again. Several properties are undergoing refurbishments or repositioning strategies that will raise both nightly rates and total visitor volume. This supports the retail revival and strengthens the tourism base that Union Square depends on. Office conversions are also part of the story. Some buildings are exploring conversions to residential or mixed use. These projects are slow but meaningful. Even a few hundred new residents living near Union Square will reshape activity patterns and drive evening foot traffic that has been missing.

Streetscape Improvements Are Creating a More Modern Urban Core

San Francisco is investing in cleaner sidewalks, lighting upgrades, and consistent street presence around Powell, Geary, and Stockton. These investments are not glamorous, but they matter more than any single anchor tenant. They create predictability for retailers and confidence for shoppers.

Tourism Is Rebounding Faster Than Expected

San Francisco’s visitor industry is recovering at a stronger pace than early estimates suggested. Hotel occupancy is rising, international travel is returning, and convention bookings are building back. Union Square sits at the center of that rebound. More tourists translate into more consistent retail sales, which encourages more leasing and more investment. Tourism will not return to 2018 patterns, but it does not need to. A stable base of visitors, paired with a stronger local retail mix, is enough to power a long term recovery.

Why the Next Five Years Could Be Transformative

Union Square is benefiting from a rare alignment of forces. Real estate values have reset to realistic levels, new owners are actively investing, retail is broadening, and tourism is rising. Add in the possibility of more residential conversions and a steady return of office workers, and the district could enter its strongest five year period of the decade.

The IRIS Point of View

IRIS tracks the momentum of San Francisco’s neighborhoods through listing velocity, renter demand, and local foot traffic patterns. The signals around Union Square show slow but consistent improvement. Retail activity is rising. Residential interest is up. Properties that sat vacant for years now have prospects. The district is not finished rebuilding, but the direction is unmistakable. Union Square is moving from uncertainty toward renewal. For renters, buyers, and investors who watch neighborhood trends closely, this revival marks one of the most important urban turnaround stories in San Francisco today.